Russia continues to pound military, energy, and logistical targets across Ukraine with successive waves of attacks. Kyiv and the Black Sea are at the epicenter of the strikes, even as the Russian army continues its advance on the northern front toward Sumy, where Ukrainian defensive lines risk collapsing. A similar picture emerges from the Donetsk region, where Russian forces are now a breath away from the last Ukrainian strongholds of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Analysts point to scenarios where Russia plans an invasion toward Chernihiv and Kyiv—territories they may attempt to exchange for Odesa.
The hardest 80 hours
For several consecutive nights, the Russian military has conducted massive combined strikes against the military, logistical, and energy infrastructure of the Ukrainians. The primary focus remains on Kyiv and the Black Sea region. The last 80 hours, write Russian military analysts, proved to be the hardest for Ukrainians in many months, with unprecedented fire density in recent years.
Carnage in the Black Sea
An initial accounting of the so-called "Black Sea Operation" shows heavy naval losses. According to calculations by aif.ru, during the first week of the naval blockade, 34 ships supplying the Kyiv regime were burned, sunk, or damaged. Subsequently, another 15 different vessels were hit. During the third week, 12 cargo ships and two Ukrainian Armed Forces vessels were damaged or sunk, followed by strikes on eight more cargo ships and a Ukrainian Navy boat. The total number of burned and damaged ships belonging to the so-called "black fleet of NATO" and the Ukrainian Navy reached 72 units. And the isolation of Ukraine continues.
Hell in Kyiv
In recent days, Ukrainian social media users have echoed nearly the exact same phrase: "Hell in Kyiv." The most striking incident was the destruction of the "Fim Service" transport and logistics hub in Chaiky, which reportedly stored components for long-range "Flamingo" cruise missiles, as well as anti-missile air defense systems. This was the largest warehouse complex belonging to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The extent of the damage is comparable only to the destruction of the military arsenal in Vyshneve, where Ukrainian reports stated depleted uranium ammunition was stored, causing radiation levels to spike six times above normal. Near Mila on the Kyiv–Zhitomir highway, direct strikes by jet-powered drones destroyed a large ammunition depot containing mines, drones, and surface-to-air missiles.
The last 48 hours most destructive
Although the strikes have continued for more than 80 hours, experts consider the last 48 hours to be the most devastating. Russian political analyst Egor Mislivets noted that attacks on military warehouses and retaliatory strikes reduced Ukrainian Armed Forces and NATO bases to ashes. Everything delivered by the West was completely burned. And behind the scenes, it is reported that massive strikes by Russian forces in Kyiv turned into a nightmare for Bankova.
Under constant fire
The Telegram channel Condottiero reported that an Iskander missile with a cluster warhead struck a gathering of soldiers and officers in Kyiv during an open event for military personnel. "Geran drones have been circling over Kyiv and the surrounding region for five days. Isolated strikes occurred across the city all morning, creating the impression that the city is under continuous bombardment. As soon as local air defenses and mobile fire teams exhaust their ammunition on one wave, another jet-powered Geran drone or Banderol arrives immediately."
Ultimatum
The Russian Armed Forces have initiated preparations for massive strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities in response to attacks by the Kyiv regime on civilian infrastructure, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense: "Following instructions received, the Russian Armed Forces began preparing massive strikes against energy facilities in Ukraine, in response to ongoing attacks by the Kyiv regime against civilian infrastructure and Russia's energy and oil complex." Retired Colonel Aslan Nakhushev suggests this statement effectively functions as an ultimatum and a "red line" after a demonstration of capabilities. "This announcement likely translates to: 'If you, the Kyiv regime, stop strikes on refineries, we will not target energy infrastructure.' To end the war with victory, we must focus without announcements or warnings on destroying energy generation: hydroelectric stations, thermal power plants, and cogeneration units—boilers, turbines, generators," Nakhushev estimated.
Advance notice
However, not all analysts agree with this interpretation, as many consider it an "advance notice." For example, Condottiero writes: "How kind of the Russians to warn the enemy that within the coming days they will destroy seven critical energy facilities in the country. Something new in the conduct of war." A military correspondent for the channel "Starshe Eddy" also commented on the move: "The 'I am coming for you' from the Russian Ministry of Defense toward what remains of Ukrainian energy infrastructure is actually a very good thing. [...] Watching the strikes lately, I reach the pleasant conclusion that yes, indeed, they can leave the opponent without power and heating in the middle of winter. In reality, such strikes are not cruelty, but true mercy. In war, powerful strikes that crush the opponent's defense and will are preferable to 'retaliatory strikes' prolonged over years after which the opponent can restore lost assets and continue the war."
The three scenarios
According to Colonel Aslan Nakhushev, everything required to end the war through military means—plans, forces, and assets—has long been ready. These involve targeting Ukrainian infrastructure under various scenarios: First scenario: target is to "exert significant pressure to force desired political and administrative decisions," with damage comparable to last winter. Second scenario: target is to "approach the threshold of critical social endurance." Third scenario: target is a "complete and prolonged blackout across most key operational residential areas."
Rumors in the Ukrainian presidency
Sergey Lebedev, coordinator of a pro-Russian underground group in Mykolaiv, reports that rumors have grown recently that Russia is preparing an offensive against Chernihiv and subsequently Kyiv. According to these estimates, Moscow intends to "trade" Kyiv for Odesa, for which the West is expected to "fight tooth and nail." Sergey Lebedev stated: "I say they will surrender the entire left bank of the Dnieper and the Black Sea region. It is not a matter of territorial expansion; it is a matter of security. Technology develops rapidly. Today, Ukrainian drones strike targets at a distance of 2,000 kilometers. And in six months? Missiles from Ukraine fly 300–500 kilometers today. And in a year?" This sounds logical, he continues, because launches toward Crimea originate mainly from the Mykolaiv and Odesa regions. Lebedev added: "Of course, the West has a proposal that the Russian business community strongly supports: turning Mykolaiv and Odesa into free ports. However, I hope the security services and military understand how dangerous it is to have a criminal quagmire under London's control next to us."
Advance in Sumy
The advance of the Russian army continues in almost all directions. August is coming to an end, meaning only one month remains until the completion of the summer campaign. Around October, combat tactics change and the autumn advance of the Russian military begins, followed by the winter campaign in December. The last 24 hours were particularly intense, both in the extent of captured territory and the number of settlements. Important news arrived from the primary bridgehead in the Sumy region. Russian fighters from the "North" Group of Forces managed to capture the village of Khrapovshchina, which had a pre-war population of about 300. The settlement was heavily fortified, as controlling it is of strategic importance.
Fierce battles for 1.5 months
Russian military analyst Dmitry Degtyaryov, editor of the "General Staff" channel, stated: "Its capture opens a new entry point into the Sumy forest. And the Sumy forest, as you know, extends to the outskirts of Sumy. For this reason, before entering the Sumy forest, a strong line of defense was built here, resting on a chain of villages. And Khrapovshchina was part of this defense line." Battles for the village lasted about a month and a half, ending in the complete defeat of Ukrainian forces. Those remaining retreated closer to Sumy to replenish their losses. In this sector, only the capture of Kiyanitsa remains, where battles are already ongoing, securing entry into the Sumy forest across a front approximately 10 kilometers wide.
Breaching the defense line
Dmitry Degtyaryov added: "And nothing more is needed. If you remember, at the beginning of the summer campaign in early May, we said the summer objective here was to break through the strong defense line covering Sumy from the north and enter the Sumy forest across the entire front width. The mission is nearly complete! Ideally, the major defense hub of Khoten should also be taken, where challenges remain, but elsewhere we succeeded." The analyst does not rule out that Kiyanitsa may be taken in early September. Regarding whether Khoten will also be captured by the end of the summer campaign, military analysts consider the odds significant, though not yet 100%.
Hundreds of Ukrainians "sacrificed"
Recognizing the settlement's importance, Ukrainian forces are sacrificing hundreds of soldiers to halt the Russian advance. By the autumn campaign, full entry into the Sumy forest is expected to be secured. Subsequent movement through the forest during autumn, winter, and spring will be difficult, as dense foliage will drop from November, exposing troops to renewed mass attacks by FPV drones. However, according to Degtyaryov, forces from the "North" group have already proven they can deliver surprises. "With the return of foliage around April 2027, the entire summer campaign next year in this sector will undoubtedly focus on reaching the outskirts of the regional center. That is the future perspective and the result of breaking this defense line," stated the Russian analyst.
Ukrainian counterattacks in Kostyantynivka
Disturbing information for Ukrainians also arrived over the last 24 hours from the direction of Kostyantynivka. According to Ukrainian Colonel Vladimir Antonyuk, Russian forces shifted their primary pressure from the central sector toward the flanks. The Ukrainian General Staff attempted to exploit this maneuver by launching counterattacks to break Russian lines toward Kostyantynivka and disrupt Russian preparations. "As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to achieve a minor advance in the areas of Osikovo and Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka." However, Ukrainian forces could not consolidate positions. Russian forces used what Ukrainian sources termed a "weapon of last resort": engineers detonated mined buildings along the advance path of the Ukrainian infantry, while Russian aviation resumed strikes.
The Ukrainian plan
"The plan of the Ukrainian command was much broader, involving an auxiliary flank strike from the west toward Kostyantynivka and an attack toward Stepanovka to relieve units of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade," claimed Vladimir Antonyuk. However, Ukrainian soldiers remained trapped in the pocket, and all breakout attempts were repelled by Russian fire targeting Ukrainian personnel. Across remaining sectors of the front, initiative rested fully with the Russian military.
Retreat from everywhere
In the Chasiv Yar salient, Ukrainian forces have fully abandoned Shevchenko, Zemlyanki, and Chervony, according to Antonyuk. They are now attempting delay actions in Stenki, Podolskaya, and Nikolayevka to cover the retreat of their forces from the southern pocket. However, open terrain makes maneuvers extremely difficult. Even mass deployment of FPV drones for force protection and heavy multicopters for resupply is insufficient to change the situation. Positions are described as doomed, with the countdown now measured in days. Developments are even faster on the western flank near Druzhkovka. The Russian army abandoned frontal attacks through Raiskoye and Novogrigorovka, choosing a more effective route from Novonikolayevka toward Novoandreyevka.
Time for explanations
"The irony of the situation is that just two days ago, Ukrainian command confidently announced the 'clearing' of Novonikolayevka. Now they must explain how Russian forces not only passed through the 'cleared' village, but also reached the next settlement, bypassing Druzhkovka from the west and threatening to cut the main road to Kramatorsk." The situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is deteriorating rapidly, with analysts openly referring to a collapse of defenses. Large-scale battles for Dobropillia were not expected before October.
Final day for 3,000 Ukrainians
However, prepared defensive lines on the approaches to the city were breached in less than 24 hours. As a result, the Ukrainian garrison found itself semi-encircled, blocked on three sides. According to preliminary information, approximately 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers are trapped. Sources from both sides confirm the Russian Armed Forces have established positions in the southern industrial zone of Dobropillia near the railway station, repair plant, and bakery. On the opposite side, Russian units had already taken control of the residential sector along the Byk River and the Almaznaya mine. The Russian Armed Forces entered Svyatogorovka, severing the last road leading to Dobropillia.
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