A political party continuing rolling polls disclosed to us the results of a new survey, which appear to reflect the reality of the current juncture. It should be noted that bankingnews (BN) will publish its own poll—which it will conduct approximately once a month—by the end of the current week, tracking Greek political polls.
The 10 parties inside Parliament at 93%
Based on the political party's survey, the parties entering Parliament reach 10 in number, accounting for a combined 93%, which means that parties remaining outside Parliament at 7% do not substantially alter seat distribution. New Democracy (ND) receives a 26% share, passing the bonus seat threshold of 25%, which translates in a 10-party Parliament to roughly 115 seats. Tsipras's ELAS follows with 16%, standing 10 percentage points behind ND and roughly 4 percentage points ahead of PASOK. Contrary to estimates by some analysts, PASOK will be third party, and this scenario appears unlikely to change. Kasidiaris with the Alliance of Greeks reaches 8%, matching the score received by the KKE at 8%. Antonis Samaras, who will announce his party in February 2027, stands at 7%, though his percentage could prove marginally higher based on the qualitative data of the measurement. Velopoulos's Greek Solution has deflated to 5%, as obviously both Kasidiaris and Samaras inflict serious political damage, altering Greek parliamentary seat distribution.
What the poll shows
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ND: 26%
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ELAS: 16%
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PASOK: 12%
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Symmachia Ellinon – Kasidiaris: 8%
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KKE: 8%
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Samaras: 7%
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Greek Solution: 5%
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Course of Freedom: 4%
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Elpida – Karystianou: 3.8%
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Voice of Reason: 2.8% to 3%
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Sum of parties inside Parliament: approximately 93%
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Parties outside Parliament: approximately 7%
Conclusion
Based on this major party measurement, the new Parliament will be a 10-party body. The Patriotic Parties block receives up to 27%. The Liberal-Centrist block receives 26%. The Center-Left and Left block receives 40%. Parties remaining outside Parliament at 7% are for the most part center-left. Furthermore, a highly interesting detail is that as voter turnout increases—meaning the denominator of the equation expands—the first-placed party faces heightened pressure. We have analyzed that even a slight difference in voters turning out, for instance from 5.3 to 5.5 million voters, marginally alters party percentages, placing ND at risk near 25% under a high-turnout scenario, influencing Greek electoral dynamics.
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