With elections in Israel (10/27) and the US (11/3) approaching, anxiety over developments in the broader Middle East region is peaking. Although US President Donald Trump has openly and publicly maintained that he does not intend to attack Iran prior to the November 3 midterm elections, numerous analysts do not rule out even the scenario of the American president changing his mind. His backing of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shortly before crucial Israeli elections coincides with intense military mobility, backstage diplomatic maneuvering, and fresh tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Trump's statements regarding limited Russian and Chinese aid to Iran, the surprise visit of US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to Israel, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's visit to Tehran shape a complex geopolitical landscape wherein diplomacy coexists with the threat of a new, broader conflict. Amidst this explosive backdrop, Trump's remark that it is positive Putin is "distancing" himself from the war in Iran made an impression; a statement which, combined with developments in Ukraine, constitutes an indication that Trump and Putin might potentially conclude a broader agreement. For their part, however, the Iranians clarify that should they receive a fresh attack, their response will be devastating and leveling, with their missiles and drones striking new targets rather than merely the economy and energy sectors of Middle Eastern and Persian Gulf states.
Trump: "We are unleashing very heavy strikes against Iran — Putin has distanced himself from Tehran and this is positive"
US President Donald Trump advanced new threatening statements against Iran, maintaining that the United States is delivering powerful economic and military blows to the country. "The situation regarding Iran is good. We are delivering very heavy strikes against Iran, both economically and militarily. Based on what we have monitored, Russia has done nothing in Iran and I consider this particularly positive," Trump underscored, pointing out that "we are in negotiations with Russia regarding Iran, Ukraine, hostages, and diesel fuel." "Putin has distanced himself from Iran and this is good. Russia could have offered much greater assistance to Iran. However, the assistance it has provided is minimal," Trump stated. "China could also have done much more for Iran. When China offers no substantial aid to Iran, perhaps offering none at all, and Russia likewise provides minimal support, I consider this situation to be a particularly positive development," Trump stressed.
Trump: The US "tested" NATO when requesting help in the war against Iran
Trump stated that Washington "tested" NATO when it asked the Alliance to assist in the war against Iran. "When we asked for help regarding Iran, help which we did not need, I did it to test them," Trump stated, adding that the US spends "far too much money on NATO." Trump reiterated his claim that the Iranian Navy "lies at the bottom of the sea," while asserting that 229 Iranian fighter jets "are now scattered across runways throughout the Islamic Republic of Iran." "I don't know who the hell to negotiate with," stated Trump, who added that the first and second tiers of Iranian leadership "have been neutralized," while half of the third-tier officials "have also been neutralized."
Israel: Surprise visit by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — Meeting with Netanyahu
Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a surprise visit to the country, according to a report by Axios citing two sources with knowledge of the matter. The meeting took place, according to the report, ahead of tightly contested parliamentary elections scheduled to be held in Israel next week, following public backing expressed by US President Donald Trump for Netanyahu. Polls indicate Netanyahu's religious-nationalist governing coalition may lose its parliamentary majority, although the opposition might also face difficulties forming a government. For his part, US Vice President JD Vance avoided expressing backing for Netanyahu, stating that "I am not going to get involved in Israeli elections."
Backing Netanyahu
Trump announced he officially supports the election campaign of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, although he had previously declined to express support for any candidate. In a post on the Truth Social platform last Sunday, Trump characterized Netanyahu as a "great wartime prime minister and an even more important partner for peace," adding that Iran has been "systematically destroyed, both militarily and economically, and if it does not change its stance, we will soon finish the job." "If Israel has the wrong leader, meaning anyone other than Bibi, America will have to undertake this task alone and I am not disposed to do so," Trump wrote. "Bibi Netanyahu has demonstrated strength, courage, and exceptional intelligence in the face of immense resistance, even from within Israel itself. Despite it all, he persevered and indeed managed to strengthen his position," he added.
Most would have broken
The American president noted that most people would have "broken" under the pressure Netanyahu faced, yet the Israeli prime minister "emerged even stronger." "This is the kind of partner the United States of America demands from Israel, a country for which they have done so much. Please consider this letter as my full and unconditional support for Bibi Netanyahu in his upcoming effort to be re-elected prime minister of Israel. BIBI NETANYAHU WILL NEVER DISAPPOINT YOU!", he stated.
The elections
Israeli elections are scheduled for October 27. According to a poll by Israeli newspaper Haaretz, up until Sunday the opposition alliance under Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party was projected to secure 52 seats, compared to 51 seats for the coalition under Netanyahu's Likud party, out of a total 120 Knesset seats. For now, no party or coalition is projected to secure an absolute parliamentary majority. However, Trump's support arrives following a period during which he avoided siding fully with Netanyahu's election campaign. Earlier this month, when TIME magazine asked him twice whether Netanyahu should secure another term, Trump avoided a direct answer, turning the conversation toward his own popularity in Israel and Washington's actions to support the country. When asked Thursday by conservative US network Newsmax whether he planned to get involved in Israeli elections, Trump replied: "They would like me to do it. Yes, they would like me to get involved." Asked whether he trusts Netanyahu, he replied: "I don't trust anyone, to be honest."
What Trump's support means for the war with Iran
Much of Trump's statement of support for Netanyahu focused on the war with Iran at a time when many analysts assess the American president may be examining the resumption of strikes, either prior to or following the US midterms in early November. The conflict, which began in February following US and Israel strikes across various parts of Iran, currently sits at a stalemate. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global crude oil previously transited, was effectively closed by Iran following the outbreak of the war. An American naval blockade of Iranian vessels ensued, with both countries launching attacks against ships transiting the waterway, accusing them of non-compliance with orders.
Prices soar
Last month, oil transit through the Strait returned to pre-war levels as the US Navy escorted an increasing number of tankers. However, a series of Iranian attacks against vessels earlier this month renewed pressure on crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Last month, Iran presented Washington with a proposal to reopen the waterway within seven days. However, negotiations failed because the US did not respond to Tehran's seven conditions, which included lifting sanctions and ending the American naval blockade. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated in Iranian media that the proposal remains on the table and that, provided Washington accepts Tehran's terms, the Strait could reopen within six days, with talks resuming the following day.
Half-finished... jobs
Concurrently, in a post on platform X on Sunday evening, Araghchi accused Netanyahu of desiring the resumption of strikes against Iran with US participation in order to "avoid prison." "The last time you wanted to 'finish the job,' Iran emerged even stronger. Do you want to try your luck again? Feel free. But watch out, because we have unfinished business too," he wrote. "Netanyahu is leading America into yet another war to avoid prison, regardless of the consequences for Israel, let alone for the US president," the Iranian FM added. Krieg assessed that Trump prioritizes utilizing "coercive leverage" mechanisms through his support for Netanyahu, without this necessarily implying he prefers "war over diplomacy."
Where Trump is betting
"The naval blockade heavily damages Iran and Washington believes time works in its favor. Trump's calculation is that Iran will ultimately accept concessions on the nuclear issue and reopen the Strait of Hormuz without Washington needing to offer significant prior trade-offs," he argued. "His support for Netanyahu reinforces the military threat underpinning this strategy. However, this does not mean diplomacy has ended. Trump still desires an agreement he can present as a victory. The danger is that Tehran increasingly believes it must escalate tension in order to improve its bargaining position."
What follows?
Vakil explained that while Trump's statement of support for Netanyahu signals renewed political alignment with Israel and leaves open the possibility of future joint military action, it simultaneously makes it "more difficult for Trump to distance himself from the war or present the US as a country that entered it reluctantly." "He explicitly assumes political responsibility for this partnership and the military campaign against Iran. However, his support does not necessarily mean the two leaders have agreed on a new operation, nor does it clarify which of the two initially exerted greater pressure for the war," she stated. Vakil added that for Tehran, this statement will reinforce the Iranian leadership's conviction that "there is no substantive difference between US and Israeli goals." "Simultaneously, Trump's reference that he is reluctant to clash with Iran without Netanyahu could be interpreted as an indication of the limits of Washington's willingness to engage in yet another war."
Attack plans ready
Meanwhile, although Trump has stated he will not attack Iran prior to the November midterms, several US media outlets have reported the Pentagon has drawn up plans to resume strikes before voters head to the polls. Last week, US-based Axios reported, citing American and Israeli officials, that both Trump and Netanyahu had discussed the possibility of launching a major new military operation against Iran prior to elections in both countries. According to Krieg, the likelihood of the US and Israel launching a fresh attack remains small, provided no Iranian strike occurs that forces a response. "The most dangerous time window opens after November 3, when these electoral constraints will have vanished. The armed forces of both countries are preparing for this eventuality. The greatest immediate danger is an uncontrollable escalation in the Strait of Hormuz that forces Washington to act before either leader is politically ready," he concluded.
Iran: Araghchi lauds historic ties with Russia and "nuclear cooperation" following talks with Lavrov
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that "never in our history have Iran and Russia cooperated as closely as today," following talks he held in Tehran with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. In a post on platform X, Araghchi stated the two officials held "timely talks" covering regional and international developments including issues concerning Lebanon, Palestine, Ukraine, and Yemen, placing special emphasis on "reinforcing economic and nuclear cooperation."
Iran: We downed an MQ-9 over Hormuz
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced it intercepted and destroyed an American MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle over the Strait of Hormuz during the early morning hours of Tuesday, according to state broadcaster IRIB. The announcement states the drone was shot down by an advanced air defense system operated by the Aerospace Force of the Revolutionary Guards operating within the framework of Iran's integrated air defense network.
US: Senators ask Pentagon to disclose "real cost" of war with Iran
Five Democratic senators asked the Pentagon to disclose the total cost of the war against Iran, denouncing that the "ongoing efforts of the Trump administration to conceal the real cost of this war are outrageous and unacceptable." In a letter initiated by Senator Elizabeth Warren addressed to US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Admiral Brad Cooper, senators requested estimates of damages sustained by American military bases, a timeline for their restoration, alongside detailed data regarding expenses related to utilizing alternative facilities, according to USA Today. According to US armed forces estimates, the cost of the war had climbed to $43.6 billion as of September 3, excluding damages to bases and facilities hit by Iranian strikes. "The American people deserve to know the full cost of the Trump administration's unauthorized war against Iran," senators stated in their letter, pointing out Cooper had presented a damage estimate during a classified briefing. "There is no reason for this cost estimate to remain classified," they stressed. "Damages to bases and allied country facilities have also increased the cost of this war for our regional partners and put American troops in danger."
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